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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.