🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."