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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.